Market & Risk Forecast Lead

The Market & Risk Forecasting Lead will own Motability Operations' quantitative outlook for the UK automotive market and used-vehicle market, providing the economic and market forecasting that underpins our view of future vehicle values.

Sitting at the intersection of economics, quantitative modelling, automotive markets and financial risk, you will combine econometric analysis, market evidence and expert judgement to develop our central market outlook, sensitivities and alternative scenarios.

The outputs of this role inform some of Motability Operations' most financially significant decisions, including residual value assumptions, pricing, fleet valuation, provisions and portfolio risk management across the UK's largest car leasing fleet.

You do not need to come from the automotive industry. We are particularly interested in people with strong backgrounds in economic forecasting, quantitative risk, asset-value modelling or applied econometrics who are interested in applying those skills to the automotive market.

You will report to the Head of Residual Value & SMR Risk within the Asset Risk Division.

As part of the role, you will:

• Own Motability Operations' quantitative outlook for the UK automotive and used-vehicle market, including the central forecast, key assumptions, sensitivities and alternative scenarios that underpin our view of future vehicle values.
• Analyse how macroeconomic factors such as economic growth, inflation, employment, interest rates and consumer affordability influence vehicle values.
• Work with the Risk Modelling Team, who operate and maintain the underlying forecasting models, to ensure model outputs appropriately support the market outlook and the decisions that rely upon it.
• Define the economic and market assumptions, scenarios and analytical questions that need to be reflected through the forecasting models.
• Review and challenge model updates and outputs presented by Risk Modelling, combining quantitative evidence with automotive market intelligence and expert judgement to determine the implications for the overall outlook.
• Assess whether historical relationships and model outputs remain appropriate as economic conditions, consumer behaviour and the automotive market evolve.
• Translate modelling outputs and wider market evidence into a clear, coherent market narrative for senior stakeholders and decision-making forums.
• Provide key forecasting inputs into quarterly Residual Value Reviews and fleet revaluations across our vehicle portfolio.
• Work closely with Residual Value analysts to ensure top-down economic and market forecasts are appropriately reflected in vehicle-level assumptions.
• Partner with Pricing, Finance, Risk, Data & Insight and other teams to understand the commercial and financial implications of changes in the outlook.
• Work with Risk Modelling to identify opportunities to strengthen forecasting methodologies, including requirements for model development, back-testing, sensitivity analysis and assessment of structural market changes.
• Ensure forecasting models and assumptions are appropriately governed, documented and subject to effective review and challenge.Monitor developments in the economy and automotive market, identifying emerging risks and assessing whether historical relationships remain appropriate.
• Engage with external economists, industry bodies, data providers and market experts where appropriate to challenge and strengthen our outlook.
• Promote best practice in quantitative forecasting, model governance and knowledge sharing across Asset Risk.